I('ll) bet
1. I imagine or am fairly certain (that). The government is talking about another tax cut, but I'll bet us working-class stiffs don't see a dime of it. A: "Have you seen my glasses anywhere?" B: "I bet they're back in the restaurant—that's the last place I saw you wearing them."
2. That sounds correct; that's unsurprising. A: "Ugh, I'm not feeling very well." B: "Yeah, I'll bet, considering how much you had to drink last night." A: "I'm feeling pretty guilty about the whole thing." B: "I bet you are. It was a pretty low thing to do."